Biblioteca

Simulation results indicated that species' habitat suitability increased or remained the same in the northern and southern margins of the Eastern Tropical Pacific but decreased by up to 14% in some fisheries along Central America. The largest declines in the average species habitat suitability index were projected for small pelagic fisheries (up to −46%), while the highest local species turnover was projected for coastal small-scale fisheries (up to 80%). Under RCP 8.5, species in the southern half and northern equatorial region of the Eastern Tropical Pacific were projected to shift south-east at a rate of approximately 30–60 km decade-1, respectively. Demersal species were projected to move into shallower, inshore waters with a shift in depth centroids estimated at a rate of around 1 to 13 m decade−1. Range shifts towards the equator reflect movements to cooler habitats that are characteristic of equatorial upwelling systems. Range shifts towards shallower, inshore waters reflect habitat compression associated with the expansion of oxygen minimum zones.